Natural Gas Load Forecasting
A day-ahead forecast that scores itself, every day
- The forecast. Switch between winter, shoulder and summer. The two forecasts separate most in summer, which is the opposite of what most people expect.
- What it is worth. Accuracy converted into the imbalance charges it avoids, on one year and one system.
Illustrative product demo. No client is shown, named or described here, and no figure on this page reflects any client’s measured results. Generic illustrative series, no client or utility data. Illustrative system and tariff. No utility's data, tariff or forecast is reproduced here.
The shaded band is the 5% balancing tolerance around actual demand. A forecast inside the band costs nothing; outside it, the excess is charged.
Switch to Summer and the two forecasts separate the most, which is the opposite of what people expect. In winter the weather term dominates and any regression tracks it; in the shoulder and summer the load is mostly behavior, and a weather-only model has nothing to work with.